ARIZONA — Democrats are on track to win every statewide office, both legislative chambers, and a majority of Arizona's U.S. House seats. They already hold both U.S. Senate seats. It hasn't happened since 1948.
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With most ballots counted, Gov. Katie Hobbs is beating Republican Andy Biggs by about 13 points. In 2024, President Trump won Arizona by five points. That's an 18-point swing toward Democrats in two years.
Local pollster Paul Bentz from the consulting firm HighGround correctly predicted the margins seen between most Democrats and Republicans. Bentz said turnout alone doesn't explain the results.
"Well, independents turned out at a great clip on Election Day. We saw Democrats enthuse to show up, and quite frankly, the cavalry that Republicans thought were going to come over the Hill didn't happen," Bentz said.
Bentz said voters who sided with Trump in 2024 shifted back toward Democrats this election.
"Independent voters, younger voters, Latino voters, all those different audiences that had been more towards Trump in 2024 because they were fed up with Biden are now fed up with Trump, and they've moved back towards the Democrats. We expect this not to last forever, but it's definitely a significant shift for this election," Bentz said.
The New York Times' voter trends analysis shows where the shift happened. Hispanic voters and voters under 30 — two groups that leaned toward Trump in 2024 — swung back 25 to 30 points. Voters without a college degree, a core part of the Trump coalition, swung 16 points. The smallest move came from voters over 65, who still swung 8 points toward Democrats.
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