ARIZONA — With Election Day one week away, the final polls are in — and they show Democrats ahead up and down the Arizona ballot.
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Local pollster HighGround's final poll of the cycle has Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Andy Biggs by 12 points. The closest statewide race is Superintendent of Public Instruction, where Teresa Ruiz leads Kimberly Yee by 4 points.
Pollster Paul Bentz says one group explains the Democratic advantage: independents.
"Independents in particular have really rejected the Republican Party. There are concerns about affordability, international conflicts, the things that the president's saying. Republicans have not given them a lot of reasons to vote for them," Bentz said.
Congressional races to watch
In the 6th Congressional District in southeastern Arizona, recent polling has Democrat Joanna Mendoza ahead of Republican Juan Ciscomani by 5 points. But Ciscomani has overperformed in both of his previous elections — by as much as 5 points in 2022.
In the 1st Congressional District, covering northeast Phoenix and Scottsdale, recent polling gives Democrat Amish Shah a slight edge over Republican Jay Feely. Republicans have tended to overperform in that district as well. Outgoing Congressman David Schweikert held the seat in 2022 by less than a point.
Legislative races that could shift power
If Hobbs wins by double digits, Democrats could flip one or both chambers of the Arizona Legislature for the first time in decades.
Four legislative districts are ones to watch: Districts 2 and 4 in the North Valley, District 13 in Chandler, and District 17 around northern and eastern Tucson. Former President Donald Trump won each of those districts by between 1 and 6 points. Any Democratic path to legislative control runs through those districts.
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