Arizona, California and Nevada will receive less water from the Colorado River under a new federal framework designed to protect the nation's two largest reservoirs from reaching dead pool.
The Bureau of Reclamation released its Record of Decision on the Colorado River, outlining mandatory reductions and voluntary conservation targets for the Lower Basin states.
The Cuts
Water deliveries to the three Lower Basin states will be reduced by 1.25 million acre-feet over the next two years. Arizona takes the largest share of the cuts at 760,000 acre-feet, followed by California at 440,000 acre-feet and Nevada at 50,000 acre-feet.
If drought conditions deepen, those cuts could expand and that could happen at any point. In addition to the mandatory reductions, states are being directed to voluntarily conserve another 700,000 acre-feet over the next three years.
Why Lake Powell is driving the decision
Lake Powell currently sits at an elevation of 3,519 feet, 9 feet above a critical infrastructure threshold needed to keep water flowing downstream. The reservoir has already dropped three feet this month alone.
Sarah Porter, director at ASU Morrison's Kyl Center for Water Policy, said the federal government's focus on maintaining that threshold is central to the new plan.
"...the only way we have to keep the hydropower outlets you know turbines essentially working because the alternative outlets don't work, they're afraid of operating them because they don't have any confidence in those. So, yeah, keeping they've said we're going to keep Lake Powell at 3510..." Porter said.
The government projected conditions over a two-year window. If drought conditions worsen than 90% of all recorded years, Powell could fall below that critical level. In a best-case snowpack scenario, the lake could climb back above 3,600 feet and delay future cuts. But in the most likely scenarios, the lake hovers near that operational buffer for two more summers before beginning to recover.
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What this means for Arizona
In non-drought conditions, Arizona is allocated 2.8 million acre-feet of Colorado River water each year. Because of the ongoing drought, that allocation was already reduced by 500,000 acre-feet. The new framework cuts it further, to just over 2 million acre-feet — a 27% reduction.
The agreement also sets aside up to 450,000 acre-feet to offset cuts to Arizona tribes' federally mandated water rights. Much of that tribal water is leased to cities including Phoenix and Scottsdale.
Porter said the reservoirs will need sustained effort to recover.
"...it took 17 years for Lake Powell to fill after it was completed, we need years and years of extraordinary conservation in the reservoirs to get them up to a level where they're not at risk..." Porter said.
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