PHOENIX — Could Democrats finally flip the Arizona Legislature blue?
Republicans have led the Legislature for decades, with slim majorities in both the Senate – 17 to 13 – and the House – 33 to 27.
When asked if his party could finally win control, state House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos told ABC15: “Absolutely, 100%. We are cautiously optimistic.”
Voters, he said, are looking to Democrats for solutions.
“The truth is that Arizonans are sick and tired of the high costs that Republicans have produced in this state,” he said. “They're sick and tired of the war in Iran and the tariffs and all of the failed Republican policies that are increasing the cost of living.”
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But Democrats say this every election cycle – and the party actually lost ground to Republicans two years ago.
“What makes this year different is really the cost-of-living crisis and the fact that Arizona voters are connecting the unaffordability crisis to Republican policies,” De Los Santos said. “Arizona voters – left, right and center – know that Republicans have cut health care. They know that the war in Iran that Republicans are supporting are driving up costs. They know that the high cost of fuel and food is a direct result of Republicans being in power.”
Republicans also confident
But Republicans also say they’re optimistic.
State Senate Pro Tempore T.J. Shope told ABC15 the GOP has everything in place to maintain their majority, pointing to the Senate’s incumbents in two swing districts, state Sens. Carine Werner and Shawnna Bolick, and other strong candidates.
“I think our messaging is better,” he said. “I think our candidates are a million times better, and you're going to see that on election night.”
Polls show Democrats ahead in statewide and congressional races. Last week, Bolick posted a digital ad on YouTube saying she is a “check on total Democrat control.”
“Arizona needs balance,” she wrote on X. “With a Democratic Governor, we need commonsense legislators.”
But Shope said Republicans aren’t throwing in the towel.
“We're not leaving any votes on the table,” he said. “I think that if one thing we learned from the Ducey-Sinema election from several years ago is that there are plenty of people who split their tickets, and we should be trying to go after those people very aggressively.”
Few swing districts
The path to flipping the Legislature is very narrow.
Every seat in the 30-member Senate and 60-member House is up for election. But most of Arizona’s legislative districts are safely Republican or Democratic, with only a handful of competitive swing districts.
“The No. 1 thing we did to overcome that was recruit incredible candidates who will be phenomenal, public servants, and who can win races,” De Los Santos said.
Arizonans, he said, are sick and tired of politicians.
“They want public servants who are putting the good of the people and solutions to the affordability crisis before anything else,” he said.
What a blue wave would mean
If Democrats win majorities in the Legislature and Gov. Katie Hobbs is re-elected, the next legislative session could look very different.
Despite the relatively slim Republican majorities of the last four years, few bills sponsored by Democrats even get a committee hearing. Hobbs has vetoed a record 541 bills, including legislation Republicans tried to pass multiple times.
De Los Santos said his party will be “all in on” health care, food and childcare if Democrats flip the House and Senate blue.
"I don't want ... to leave any uncertainty from voters as to what the Democratic agenda is going to be,” he said. “Democrats are going to be fighting not for Team Blue or Team Red. We're going to be fighting for Team Arizona and to make Arizona more affordable.”
Shope said Republicans will continue to push their priorities if Arizona has another two years of split government, with a Democratic governor and Republican-led Legislature.
“We're going to continue to see a very sober discussion on what budgets look like, on making sure that we're doing right by the taxpayers of this state and making sure that we have not just a carte blanche for a one-side-takes-all kind of mentality at the state Capitol in Phoenix,” he said.
Solving affordability
Both parties agree affordability is the top challenge, but they have very different approaches to solutions.
Shope, who also said water is a top priority, pointed to tax cuts as one way Republicans have brought down costs for everyday Arizonans.
“We want to make sure that Arizona continues to prosper, continues to be a place where families can feel like they can not just find a job, but also find a home that they can settle themselves into long term and start a family in this state,” he said.
De Los Santos said Democrats would focus on “building an Arizona we can afford” by ensuring landlords can’t jack up the cost of rent, preventing out-of-state investors from buying up too many homes, bringing down the cost of childcare and allocating more dollars to public schools.
“We should be providing every single Arizona child a world-class education, and so we're going to be making big, bold investments in our future, in our workforce, in our public schools and in our students,” he said.
Meanwhile, Shope said Republican policies are the reason for Arizona’s success over the last several decades.
“They've allowed for so many people to come here, find work, raise a family, and all those things,” he said. “Those things could be gone in an instant if the election goes the wrong way.”
Arizona’s ability to attract large job creators and industries is at stake, Shope said.
“Those things are coming from places like California, which has experienced this type of politics that the other side is proposing for a very long time,” he said.
