PHOENIX — Ballot counting is nearly complete in Arizona's primary election, and with most ballots already tallied, turnout is on track to come in at approximately 26 percent — the lowest turnout rate since 2008.
Since 2010, turnout in Arizona primaries has ranged from 27 to 36 percent, with an average of 30 percent. The projected 26 percent figure represents a nearly 10-point drop from four years ago.
In raw numbers, approximately 1.1 million total ballots are expected to be cast — which would be the lowest raw ballot total since 2016.
What does low primary turnout mean for November?
Primary turnout is a weak signal for general election performance. The pattern has been inconsistent in recent cycles:
In 2024, both primary and general election turnout were down compared to 2020.
In 2022 — the cycle most comparable to this one — primary turnout was up from 2018, but general election turnout was down 4 points.
The seemingly random pattern continues further back in the data.
Party spread offers another data point
The gap between Republican and Democratic ballots cast in the primary has varied widely in recent cycles and has shown some correlation with general election outcomes:
In 2020, only 4 percentage points separated Republican from Democratic ballots in the primary. Joe Biden went on to win Arizona in the general election, very narrowly.
In 2022, a much wider 16-point spread separated the parties. Democrats narrowly won many state offices.
In 2024, an 18-point spread separated the parties. Donald Trump won the state, but so did Ruben Gallego.
This year's spread is expected to end up around 8 points.
That spread suggests Democrats face a bit more headwind than Republicans in enthusiasm right now, but there is plenty of time between now and November for that to change.
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