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October inflation report comes in hotter than expected, fed rate hike now likely

Prices rose 0.4% from September to October, double Wall Street's expectations, with transportation and recreation services leading the way.
October inflation report: What's driving prices up
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Prices rose 0.4% from September to October, according to the Labor Department — double the 0.2% Wall Street had expected.

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Strip out food and energy, and prices still rose 0.3%, the biggest jump for that measure since February.

The annual inflation rate was 3.7% in September. There is no annual rate for October. Last year's government shutdown meant no October data was collected, leaving nothing to compare against. Economists estimate the annual rate is close to 4%.

Energy drove part of the monthly increase, rising 0.7%. But transportation services and recreation services rose even more — up 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

By product, lettuce led all categories, up 8%. Taxi and rideshare fares and postage also jumped more than 5%.

The biggest drops came in car rentals, coffee, women's suits, health insurance and landscaping.

A report this strong makes a Federal Reserve rate hike next month nearly certain. Forecasters give it about a 9-in-10 chance of a quarter-point hike and a 1-in-10 chance of a half-point hike.

Closer to home, the ABC15 Affordability Index fell from last month, meaning the Valley is a little more affordable. Cheaper gas is a big part of that, even as energy prices rose nationally. The ABC15 Smart Shopper Grocery Basket also dropped more than a dollar, mostly because beef and chicken got cheaper.

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