SCOTTSDALE, AZ — The race for Arizona's First Congressional District is one of about 20 in the country that could decide control of the U.S. House.
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst and managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, said he still considers this a toss-up race.
"Both parties are looking at this as a pretty high, highly competitive and pretty important race," Kondik said.
CD1 is home to about 820,000 people.
The district covers northeast Phoenix along with Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek. Joe Biden narrowly won the district in 2020, and Donald Trump narrowly carried it in 2024.
We're all about Scottsdale — the schools, the neighborhoods, the businesses, the decisions being made at City Hall and in the community that affect your daily life.
Connect with your community by joining the Your Scottsdale News Facebook Group!
"This is one of the seats in Arizona that actually got a little bit better for Democrats in the redistricting after 2020," Kondik said.
Current Representative David Schweikert chose not to seek re-election. He ran for Arizona governor instead but did not make it past the primary. Schweikert has held the seat since 2011.
Republican candidate Jay Feely and Democratic candidate Amish Shah are now competing for the open seat.
Kondik said Feely's former career as an NFL player and commentator gives him name recognition, along with an endorsement from President Trump. Feely could potentially keep the seat Republican if he wins crossover voters.
"Maybe Feely ends up running a really good race and he's got ways that he can appeal to people that might not just be on a usual kind of, you know, 'D versus R' dynamic," Kondik said.
Kondik said Democrats appear to have the edge on paper, with the national political environment favoring Shah, an emergency room doctor and former state legislator.
When asked what the race will ultimately come down to, Kondik pointed to broader political trends.
"If this is decided on sort of nationalized grounds -- as we often see congressional races are -- I think you'd much rather be the Democrat in this and in many other races and swing seats," Kondik said.
ABC15 has invited both candidates for sit-down interviews.
