SCOTTSDALE, AZ — Two leading political forecasters are now predicting that Arizona's 1st Congressional District is no longer a toss-up and is leaning Democratic.
Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report now give Democrats an edge in the seat David Schweikert is leaving.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, said the national mood is driving it.
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"In a year where Democrats are probably going to win the overall U.S. House race by half a dozen points or more, I think I'd rather be a Democrat in Arizona One right now," Kondik said.
Arizona's First Congressional District covers northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek. It's been close. Biden carried it by one-and-a-half points in 2020. Trump won it by three points in 2024.
"It does kind of profile as the kind of seat that is pretty vulnerable for Republicans in this environment," Kondik said.
Both candidates — Republican Jay Feely and Democrat Amish Shah — have each spent millions.
In an email to supporters this week, Feely acknowledged the climb. He wrote that Shah has built a large financial advantage, and "we are officially behind and time is running out."
Feely has President Trump's endorsement. He's making his football career the pitch.
Shah, an ER doctor, has pointed to his record as a state legislator.
ABC15 reached out to both campaigns to get their comments on the ratings but has not yet heard back.
