PHOENIX — Multiple days in the 90s are in the forecast for Phoenix- something that would be unusual for February.
Even before the first 90-degree reading is recorded, the outlook has many Valley residents wondering whether this is a preview of a long and brutal summer.
“Unfortunately, I think it is going to be a warm summer… early and long,” Paulie said.
Longtime residents like Mark say they can’t remember temperatures like this so early in the year, calling it very unseasonal.
Others believe early heat must mean an early start to triple digits.
“It seems like the sooner it comes, the sooner it hits,” Steve said. “Once you hit that first 90, the first 100 comes pretty soon after.”
It’s a logical assumption- but historical data tells a different story.
What the Records Show
A review of Phoenix temperature records shows no clear correlation between years with 90-degree days in February and how hot the following summer becomes.
Prior to 2026, Phoenix had reached 90 degrees in February in 5 separate years. The summers that followed varied widely, ranking anywhere from the 114th warmest to the 4th warmest on record.
In other words, the early 90s have preceded both relatively mild summers and extremely hot ones.
“That surprises me,” Steve said. “I just assumed that when it’s coming early, it’s going to get here early and stay through the summer.”
What Actually Influences Summer Heat?
Meteorologists look at several broader indicators when assessing summer heat potential:
- Winter soil moisture
- Pacific Ocean patterns like El Niño and La Niña
- The development of strong high-pressure ridges in late spring
La Niña and persistent spring ridging can tilt the odds toward hotter conditions in the Southwest- but neither guarantees extreme heat. Forecast models currently show a transition away from La Niña in the coming months.
One of the most important factors is soil moisture. Historically, warm winters combined with dry soil have preceded some of the Valley’s hottest summers. Moist soil can temporarily slow the rate of heating, while dry ground allows temperatures to climb more quickly as spring progresses.
This year, despite low snowpack in parts of the region, topsoil moisture remains above average thanks to late fall storms. This could lead to a potential temperate start to the summer. If that moisture burns off too soon, it would not play a role. If the moisture stays through early summer, it will likely evaporate and lead to even warmer conditions late summer.
Heat Safety Matters — No Matter the Number
Whether temperatures peak at 95 degrees or 110, desert heat can be dangerous.
“I used to work outdoors. I’m a retired plumber, and a lot of that outdoor work in the summer is brutal,” Mark said.
Locals we spoke to recommend that visitors and locals alike prepare early.
“If you know you’re going to be outdoors, you need a plan well ahead of time,” Paulie said. “Drink a lot of water days before you even head out into the heat — and know your limits.”
Short-Term Outlook
The ridge of high pressure driving the current warmth is not expected to last indefinitely. Long-range models suggest a shift toward lower pressure and more seasonal — or even slightly below-average — temperatures between March 5 and March 8.
For now, some residents are simply enjoying the sunshine.
“Every time I look back at the East Coast and see the snowstorms they’re getting, I just laugh,” Mark said. “I should’ve come out here sooner.”
