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MOST ACCURATE FORECAST: Storm chance return for Monday, when can you expect rain?

Thunderstorm chances in the Valley Monday
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PHOENIX — We are tracking a storm system near Baja California that is expected to bring a brief round of cooler air and a chance for scattered showers and storms to Arizona on Monday.

Temperatures will start the day near 60 degrees in the morning before warming to around 82 degrees during the afternoon.

Most of the Valley should stay dry through the morning and much of the afternoon, though clouds will gradually increase through the day.

By the early afternoon, between about 1 and 3 p.m., a stray shower can’t be ruled out. For the most part, however, much of the afternoon should remain dry.

As we head later into the day, between roughly 4 and 6 p.m., a few isolated showers may begin pushing into the Valley from the south.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives during the evening hours, between about 6 and 9 p.m. That’s the time you’ll want to plan for the possibility of rain if you have outdoor plans.

Some storms could also produce strong wind gusts and small hail, so it’s a good idea to secure or bring in any loose outdoor items.

Rainfall totals across the Valley will likely top out around a quarter of an inch, though isolated higher totals will be possible in heavier thunderstorms

A few lingering showers may still be possible early Tuesday before the storm system moves away and drier weather returns.

After the storm moves out, a strong ridge of high pressure will build in, sending temperatures climbing late in the week. By the end of the week, highs in the Valley could reach the mid-90s and may even challenge record territory.

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2026 Sky Harbor Official Rainfall to date: 0.26" (-1.72" from average)
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Daily rainfall reports from all across the Valley can be found here.
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PHOENIX IS GETTING DRIER - LOWER RAINFALL AVERAGES NOW

Average Monsoon Rainfall in Phoenix (1981-2010): 2.71" of rain

NEW Average Monsoon Rainfall in Phoenix (1991-2020): 2.43" of rain

Average Yearly Rainfall in Phoenix (1981-2010): 8:03" of rain

NEW Average Yearly Rainfall in Phoenix (1991-2020): 7.22" of rain
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