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MOST ACCURATE FORECAST: Warming up to start the week

Temperatures will climb the next couple days before monsoon storm chances return by Thursday through next weekend.

Warming up before rain chances later this week

By: Justin Hobbs

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and last updated

PHOENIX — A storm system that passed to the north brought a beautiful weekend across Arizona. Now, that system is moving out, and a ridge of subtropical high pressure is building in—setting the stage for hotter temperatures to start the week.

Expect mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in the Valley ranging from 100 to 104 degrees through Tuesday. Morning lows will sit in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

After the midweek, storm chances begin to increase as the ridge potentially pulls in leftover moisture from Tropical Storm Mario, currently in the Pacific. At the same time, a trough of low pressure will try to dip along the West Coast, helping draw that moisture northward.

While there's still considerable uncertainty about how much moisture will reach the state, models suggest that if it does move far enough north, it could significantly increase storm chances across Arizona toward the end of the week. Additionally, the trough of low pressure moving in could add to the instability.

We’re closely monitoring this complex setup and will continue to provide updates as the forecast evolves.