PHOENIX — After more than three years of negotiations among the seven Colorado River Basin states, the federal government is preparing to release its plan for managing the shrinking river.
The U.S. Department of the Interior and Bureau of Reclamation say they expect to release the Final Environmental Impact Statement for post-2026 Colorado River operations this week. The document is expected to identify the federal government’s preferred approach for operating Lake Mead and Lake Powell after the current guidelines expire.
“We’ve been waiting on this for essentially three-plus years,” said Kyle Roerink, a senior advisor with the Great Basin Water Network. “It’s been a long time coming.”
Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming have been unable to agree on how future shortages should be divided. That has left the federal government to move forward with its own framework.
“The conflict is that there isn’t enough water, and all states want to use more of it,” Roerink said. “No state wants to use less, but some states are actually willing to use less and other states aren’t.”
An earlier draft examined five possible approaches but did not identify a preferred alternative. The final document should provide a clearer picture of the direction the Trump administration intends to take.
For Arizona, one of the most important questions will be the size and timing of potential reductions.
“The cuts to Arizona will be significant,” Roerink said.
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Much of Arizona’s Colorado River allocation has junior priority compared with California’s. Arizona accepted that lower priority as part of the agreement that cleared the way for construction of the Central Arizona Project, which carries river water to the Phoenix and Tucson areas.
That means Arizona can face earlier and more severe reductions during shortages.
If state leaders believe the federal plan unfairly harms Arizona, the dispute could move into court. Arizona lawmakers have already set aside money that could be used for Colorado River litigation.
“I could potentially see Arizona suing another state down the road and this thing heading automatically to the Supreme Court,” Roerink said.
Despite the possibility of significant cuts, experts say Arizonans should not expect water to suddenly stop flowing from their faucets.
The Colorado River is only one component of Arizona’s water supply. Communities also rely on groundwater, in-state rivers, reservoirs and reclaimed water. The precise mix varies by city.
“There’s going to have to be changes in how water is used,” Roerink said. “But those basic health and safety concerns are not something that’s on the immediate horizon.”
The Final Environmental Impact Statement is an important step, but it is not itself the final operating decision. A formal Record of Decision will follow, establishing the new framework for Colorado River operations.
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