President Donald Trump began a multi-day summit in China Wednesday, where discussions are expected to cover the global economy and the Iran war — but experts say Taiwan could produce the biggest news of the trip.
Only eight sitting U.S. presidents have ever visited China. Trump was the last to do so in 2017.
White House officials say the trip will focus on the economy, with the Iran war also on the agenda. Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook are among a host of American business leaders accompanying the president.
For many experts, however, Taiwan will be one of the biggest topics to watch.
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Taiwan is home to around 23 million people. Since 1979, the U.S. has maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding how the White House would respond if Taiwan were ever attacked by China. China believes self-ruled Taiwan is a province of theirs that has acted awry.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Taiwan will likely come up during the trip but dismissed any suggestion that a policy shift is looming.
"I imagine it will be discussed in our trip, but I don't think it will be a feature of our trip," Rubio said.
"Our policy remains unchanged. We don't want to see any force or compelled change in the situation there. I think it would be destabilizing for the world," Rubio said.
Jonathan Czin, a former CIA analyst who specialized in Chinese affairs and is now at the Brookings Institution, said even a small, unscripted moment from Trump on Taiwan could carry enormous consequences.
"These are highly choreographed, very scripted events and especially since Trump is on Xi's home turf, Taiwan will come up," Czin said.
The official U.S. position is that it does not support independence for Taiwan. But Czin said a subtle yet potentially consequential shift would be if Trump were to say the U.S. opposes independence — a distinction that carries significant weight.
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"Even though it sounds like pretty subtle stuff, that shift in rhetoric, what it signals is there is active opposition to the government in Taiwan," Czin said.
Czin does not believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, but he said Chinese leaders will gauge Trump's temperature on the issue and question why $11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan were approved by Trump last year. Taiwanese officials have said they hope Trump returns to the U.S. with the status quo preserved.
