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MOST ACCURATE FORECAST: Slight chance for rain Sunday with increasing clouds

Slight rain chances Sunday and Monday before the Valley dries out
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PHOENIX — After a dry start to the weekend in the Valley, we are tracking a surge of moisture in the mid-levels of our atmosphere set to arrive early Sunday.

With ample moisture above and dew points in the 50s to 60s, this usually creates a decent atmosphere for rain chances. However, we do see in the data a dry lot of air between that layer that could inhibit rain chances for the Valley.

Sunday morning, that moisture arrives in the Valley around 9 to 10 am, if it produces any showers, they would likely be lighter and most likely on higher terrain. With the slot of dry air, this could lead to the potential for it just to be virga. This is when rain evaporates before reaching the ground nad tends to look like a cloud falling out.

Afternoon chances for rain will be more prominent across northern Arizona and isolated in southern and southeast Arizona. We will keep an eye out on and slight chance for those to move up into the Valley.

Temperatures in the Valley will start out in the morning in the upper 70s to lower 80s and warm to near the lower triple digits.

This disturbance will increase cloud coverage on Sunday and Monday and could bring more shower and thunderstorm activity to parts of our state into Monday, including right here in the Valley.

Temperatures will drop, too.

Look for highs in the upper 90s on Monday with overnight lows in the 70s across much of the Valley.

High pressure will take over toward the middle of next week, bringing in drier air and hotter conditions to Arizona for the first few days of fall.

Phoenix could top out near 105 degrees next Wednesday before another dose of cooler air arrives toward the end of next week.

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2025 Sky Harbor Official Rainfall to date: 2.38" (-2.80" from average)

Monsoon 2025 Sky Harbor Official Rainfall: 0.91" (-1.33" from average)

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Daily rainfall reports from all across the Valley can be found here.
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PHOENIX IS GETTING DRIER - LOWER RAINFALL AVERAGES NOW

Average Monsoon Rainfall in Phoenix (1981-2010): 2.71" of rain

NEW Average Monsoon Rainfall in Phoenix (1991-2020): 2.43" of rain

Average Yearly Rainfall in Phoenix (1981-2010): 8:03" of rain

NEW Average Yearly Rainfall in Phoenix (1991-2020): 7.22" of rain
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