The algae blooms that have long plagued Lake Erie in Ohio won't be as severe for the 2020 season as years past, particularly compared to the blooms of 2019, predicts the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in a new report Wednesday.
Current data models predict the bloom will be smaller than last year. NOAA said models indicate a likely severity of 4 or less on a severity index of one to 10. However, uncertainty in these forecasts indicates a potential severity of up to 6, which is still less than 7.6 seen in 2019.
There have been three years since 2011 in which it was an eight or higher: 2011, 2015, and 2017.
The size of the bloom doesn't predict its toxicity.
In a July 2019 interview with WEWS , Dr. Chris Winslow, director of Ohio Sea Grant and Ohio State University's Stone Laboratory said that while the organisms in the bloom require nitrogen in addition to phosphorus to become toxic, as well as the right combination of genetic material, individual microorganisms will produce a toxin.
NOAA said there is uncertainty in the maximum severity of these blooms because of limitations in forecasting the exact location and amount of rainfall for the rest of May.
The severity of the western Lake Erie cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (HAB) depends on the input of bioavailable phosphorus from the Maumee River during the loading season from March 1 to July 31.
NOAA's HAB forecasts aim to alert coastal managers to blooms before they become a severe problem. These forecasts are done in the short-term, once or twice weekly, to identify which blooms are potentially harmful, where they are, how big they are, and where they are likely headed. The longer-term, season forecasts predict the severity of HABs for the bloom season in a particular region.
Early warnings of the potential size of these blooms help seafood and tourism industries to minimize impacts.
You can find more data and forecast models by clicking here.