PHOENIX — In less than a year Arizonans will choose who they want to run for President of the United States.
Recent polling strongly suggests that Democrats and Republicans are looking for a Joe Biden and Donald Trump rematch. Two surveys, Emerson College, and Noble Predictive Insights asked voters who they support for President.
Joe Biden is a lock on the nominations for Democrats with over 66% of registered Democrats declaring their support. It looks like former President Trump is a lock-in for Republicans as well.
Both polls have Trump above the 50% mark and a lead of over 30 points on his next closest rival, Ron DeSantis.
A big reason for Trump’s commanding lead is 1-in-4 Arizona Republicans are “ride or die,” according to Noble Predictive Insights. Meaning 25% of Republicans support Trump over the Party.
Another quarter say they support both Trump and the Party while about half call themselves Party supporters.
Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insight says there is a clear reason for seeing these numbers. “We also asked the question do you think Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party.” Noble said. “Six and ten Republicans in Arizona believe that is the case.”
Trump’s biggest supporters in the state mainly come from the large and growing blue-collar wing of the GOP. Many live in rural counties. They do not have a college degree and report having a household income under $50,000 annually.
Those Republicans that do not see Trump as the undisputed leader tend to come from Maricopa County, have college degrees or have a household income over $100,000.
Although polling this early is not a reliable indicator of the final numbers on Election Day, there is no precedent of candidates being this far ahead and not taking the nomination. Right now, it looks like Arizona voters want a rematch of Trump and Biden in 2024.
