It seems to be the one question that Arizona’s governor does not want to answer: what are the best and worst case projections in our state?
Governor Doug Ducey has told ABC15 that he has seen the models, and seen the predictions, but no one has released the best and worst case projections with COVID-19 in Arizona.
WHATS TO COME: we found out two days ago that the state is tracking models and predictions for what’s to come in Arizona. No press briefings for the public since we learned that, this is the first time I could ask the governor directly about it. #COVID19 #covid2019 #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/SNTqNkchYy
— Nicole Grigg (@NicoleSGrigg) March 28, 2020
The question was asked nearly two weeks ago, and again by multiple news outlets on Tuesday during a press briefing.
HOW MANY CASES, HOW MANY DEATHS?
“The information we have is really scratch paper,” said Dr. Cara Christ, “we’re working with the universities to develop the actual modeling, but it changes every single day.”
Arizona’s Department of Public Health has been looking at international and national models for their predictions.
“We use many different sources, there’s not just one source that we’re looking at,” said Dr. Christ.
On Tuesday, a spokesperson said the projected peak cases could surge in late April, but that the projections change daily from several mitigation factors.
“We are trying to keep the deaths down, so I am not going to estimate a guess on how many people could eventually die,” said Dr. Christ.
One of several models the state is using is from Harvard. They have also started to refer to modeling from the University of Washington.
There are several other models they have referred to including one that looks at data from China, and the Imperial College model.
Governor Ducey said in his press conference that April is going to be a difficult month and that we’re going to have maximum amount of hospitalizations in May, but no one is releasing these predictions.
“We’re going to do everything we can between now and then, and you all have been seeing me every day, or several times a week,” said Governor Ducey. “We’re going to continue to over communicate, when I know something you’ll know something, we’ll be posting it on the website and continue to be transparent.”
When the governor was asked again by another news outlet about what are the ranges, and what are the potential cases, he replied, with telling people on the live stream that there’s a persistent desire for some type of prediction, “can I just say anybody who tells you exactly what’s going to happen in the future, is guessing and I’m not guessing,” he said.
Governor Ducey said if the state can reduce the number of contractions, then the number of deaths will be reduced too.
“I’ll close with a prediction for you though,” said Governor Doug Ducey, “we’re one day closer to this being behind us.”
