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Arizona leaders release FEMA model that predicts COVID-19 cases, deaths

Posted at 4:48 PM, May 26, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-26 22:23:31-04

Weeks after learning there is a federal Arizona-specific model, Arizona’s top public health official released the model in an online blog post on Tuesday.

Dr. Cara Christ posting in a blog post, that FEMA has authorized them to share the models publicly.

The report release May 7 has a number of graphs and data charts that are specific to Arizona.

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Christ wrote in the blog, “This model previously predicted our peak resource utilization to occur around June 11, assuming our mitigation strategies were lifted at the end of the current Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected order on April 30. That order was extended through May 15th and was just recently lifted. The most recent model, dated May 7 predicts, even with the mitigation strategies lifted, that our current resources, including inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators, are sufficient to meet a healthcare surge due to COVID-19.“

ABC15 looking at the FEMA model compared to the other Arizona-specific model from Arizona State University, and both appear to be similar in predictions. However, the ASU model predicts another 30 days compared to the federal model.

The newly released FEMA model predicting by mid-June we would see 1,300 deaths, almost double where we are now.

The federal model and ASU model appear to seem similar, as both of them agree through mid-June.

However, the ASU model continues to predict cases and deaths past mid-June.

One of the ASU models, predicts deaths rising to around 3,000 by July 1.

“All of our efforts to date have allowed our healthcare system to increase resource capacity to meet Arizona’s healthcare needs,” wrote Dr. Christ.