PHOENIX — This week came with a second GOP debate and a President Joe Biden visit in Arizona.
The election season is starting to ramp up and polling gives a snapshot of how Americans are reacting to it.
More than a year out “horse race” polls on matchups for the general elections are not a useful indicator of the eventual outcome.
The Iowa Caucuses, however, is almost 100 days away so polling on who is ahead in the GOP primary is more useful.
According to the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, former president Donald Trump has a commanding lead over his opponents. Even after two debates in which he was not present, no candidate has managed to seriously challenge his numbers. FiveThirtyEight has Trump leading the pack, averaging 54% of the primary Republican vote.
The Democratic matchups are not much different for President Biden.
With a 2020 rematch likely, most Americans are not happy with their choices. Presidential job approval polling has Biden underwater with American voters by 13 points. Job approval polls generally trend down three years into a presidency. Trump was down 14 points at the same time during his tenure and Barack Obama was down almost seven.
Presidents farther back also show a trend downward about 900 days into their presidency as well.
The story is similar to questions of favorability. American voters are equally unfavorable to both the leading candidates.
Trump has a slightly better number at 54.4% of voters viewing him unfavorably compared to Biden’s 55.9% in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.
In Arizona, pollster Mike Noble tells ABC 15 the mood is not much different. “Based on our last poll, we show that when it comes to Trump and Biden’s image and likeness Arizona voters aren’t very happy with them,” Noble said. “Trump and Biden have baseline mirror image numbers.”
The Noble Predictive poll was conducted in July and showed 58% of Arizona voters had an unfavorable opinion of Biden. Ninety percent of Republicans, 63% of Independents and even 15% of Democrats.
Trump was viewed unfavorably by 56%, 86% of Democrats and 60% of Independents. One big difference, 1-in-4 Republicans viewed the former president unfavorably.