SCOTTSDALE, AZ — Tariffs have been a question mark for consumers for months now, as the Trump administration’s import tax rates on various countries fluctuate and trade deal talks continue.
While a recent report from Circana shows the tariffs haven't played a huge role in pushing up grocery prices yet, many shoppers are still wondering what to expect going forward.
For Matt Nawrocki, a consumer in Scottsdale, Arizona, a stocked pantry is essential. His cabinets are filled with extra containers of instant coffee, wheat protein, and Spam.
“I usually have somewhere around close to 20 cans or so in reserve. These can last for many years,” Nawrocki said. “Definitely can't have too much Spam!”
As a shopper facing the prospect of tariffs impacting food prices, he is glad to keep his cabinets full.
“When COVID kicked off in 2020, it was really frustrating to have to go to the store and not have the supplies that I would want, whether it be toilet paper or different types of canned goods that I was looking for,” Nawrocki said. “I didn't want to be caught with my pants down this time.”
When it comes to tariff-proofing your pantry, economist Luis Cordova with Rounds Consulting Group, has some tips.
“The best advice I would give is kind of going through your own pantry and seeing where your food comes from, and if it is imported, then maybe it is a good idea to stock up on it or look at alternatives,” Cordova said.
He says shoppers can expect fresh produce to be most affected by tariffs. Some other items Cordova says will be hit by the taxes include those imported foods, like Italian pasta, olive oil, coffee, and canned goods.
For those who want to stock their pantries now, Cordova suggests purchasing non-perishables that have a long shelf life.
“Some of the boxed pastas... Rice would be good; that's heavily imported,” Cordova said.
Cordova also recommends getting canned goods, since aluminum and steel tariffs could also drive up the packaging costs of those products down the line.
When it comes to finding alternatives, he suggests turning to items produced in the U.S., which are foods like peanut butter, oranges, and avocado oil.
“So instead of buying imported from Spain or Italy, you can buy avocado oil that's grown and produced in California,” Cordova said.
While consumers cannot easily stock up on fresh produce, Cordova says they can turn to local producers.
“Maybe going to like more of a local market, seeing what fresh produce they have there,” he said. “It might already have a higher cost, but it's more predictable, so you might not see that fluctuation in cost.”
Prices are rising on some items, according to The Krazy Coupon Lady. The deals-finding website has tracked upticks in coffee, chocolate, and canned goods. Kristin McGrath, an editor for the site, says going forward, coupons will be a shopper’s best friend.
“If you spend the next several weeks looking for offers, for coupons, for deals, and buying those things with a longer shelf life and stocking up a little bit, you don't really have to worry as much about tariffs for the next several months,” McGrath said.
In light of the uncertainty that surrounds tariffs, these experts say flexibility will be key.
“I think it's good to continue to shop at discount grocers,” Nawrocki said. “Then try to maybe not eat out as much, because also tariffs can affect the ingredients that go into the food that we eat a McDonald's or Starbucks or whatnot. So, trying to become more self-sufficient and self-reliant.”
Adaptability is a strategy Nawrocki has already adopted to protect his wallet, as the American shopper’s on-again, off-again relationship with tariffs continues.