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Kari Lake out in front for Republican nomination in governor's race, new poll shows

Kari Lake
Posted at 9:05 AM, Jul 29, 2022

PHOENIX — A new poll of the Republican governor's primary shows voters are lining up behind Kari Lake as the August 2 Primary Election draws near.

OH Predictive Insight's third and final poll of likely GOP primary voters shows Lake jumping to an 18-point lead with 51% of the vote to Robson's 33%. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided.

It's an 11 percentage-point jump for Lake since OH's last poll in early July.

"Lake is outperforming Robson among men by 11 points and women by 24 points," Mike Noble of OH Predictive said.

Noble says the Trump endorsement has paid dividends for Lake, the former Valley news anchor.

The OH poll shows Lake getting 75% of the poll's respondents who identify as Trump supporters. Robson received 62% of respondents who identify as supporters of the Republican Party.

"The problem for Robson is Trump supporters are a larger group than Republican Party supporters," Noble said. The poll also showed Lake capturing self-identified conservatives by a 2-1 margin over Robson.

Last week, the battle for the hearts and votes of Arizona Republicans took center stage when former Vice President Mike Pence and Governor Doug Ducey campaigned with Robson in Peoria and Tucson while former President Donald Trump attended a rally in Prescott Valley for all of his endorsed candidates. On that score, it appears Trump's appearance had a greater impact.

The OH Predictive Poll shows Trump endorsed candidate for the U.S. Senate Blake Masters' lead over Jim Lamon is now 15 points with 12% undecided.

Trump is also having an impact on state races, according to the OH poll. The Trump-endorsed State Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh leads his closest challenger Rodney Glassman by 15 points, although 35% of voters remain undecided in that race.

State Representative Mark Finchem, who attended the January 6 rally in Washington and was among a group of lawmakers trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election results in Arizona, reportedly saw his support jump to 32% of the voters — 21 points higher than his nearest challenger, Governor Doug Ducey-endorsed businessman Beau Lane. But at 35%, the undecided vote remains high.

The OH Predictive Insights poll was conducted as a blended live-caller/peer-to-peer text phone survey. It was completed on July 27. The poll has a +_ 4.37% margin.

According to OH Predictive, 49% of the respondents said they already voted. Fifty-one percent reported they have not voted yet, but plan on voting.