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Political spending could surpass $821 million by 2024 in Arizona

Posted at 4:25 PM, Sep 18, 2023

PHOENIX — AdImpact projects political spending in the 2024 election cycle to surpass $10 billion nationwide with $821 million in Arizona alone.

The company reported political spending more than doubled between 2018 and 2020, from $4 billion to $9 billion.

Arizona’s status as a presidential swing state combined with what will arguably be the most watched U.S. Senate contest means the state will see a disproportionately large amount of ad spending — almost four times the amount spent in 2020. Most of the money will be used to try to sway your vote in the Presidential and Arizona Senate races.

"Arizona arguably is at its political zenith when it comes to impact on a national stage," said pollster Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights.

Four years ago, Joe Biden won Arizona by less than 11,000 votes against Donald Trump, and the Senate race between Mark Kelly and Martha McSally was one of the most expensive Senate races ever, with the candidates spending a combined $100 million.

This time around, we're expecting an anticipated Biden-Trump rematch and a three-way race for the U.S. Senate between incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat Ruben Gallego and a Republican challenger yet to be named. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is the only announced Republican.

"I think it's going to be really exciting," Noble said. "The power of who controls the U.S. Senate and who sits in the White House is ultimately going to run through Arizona."

The $821 million projected to be spent here is second only to California with it’s much larger population. The spending will work out to about $245 per vote cast in 2024, second to Nevada’s approximately $378 per vote.

Much of the spending will be coming from the top of the ticket. Arizona could see an additional $137 million spent here in 2024, a little under Missouri’s increase of $186 million and on par with Nevada’s $136.

Florida residents will see a lot fewer ads. Once a perennial swing state, Florida is now considered by most political experts as a republican lock and spending there will fall by almost $270 million.

About half of the total nationwide spend will go to broadcast television. While broadcast typically garners the lion’s share of political ad spending, AdImpact projects that $5.1 billion represents a small decline from 2020. Even with the small decline, Spanish-language broadcast TV ad spending is projected to increase 9%.

About $2.1 billion is projected to be spent on cable networks with most of the spending focused on down-ballot races.

Connected TV, devices like Roku and Fire TV, is a new advertising medium and the fastest growing. This year it will surpass digital ad spending on platforms like Facebook and YouTube by $1.3 billion to $1.2 billion. Both terrestrial and satellite radio are expected to have political ad spending to the tune of $500 million.