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Data: Universal ESA enrollment about 51K, cost estimates likely near $500M

Posted at 6:47 PM, Apr 03, 2023
and last updated 2023-04-03 21:47:35-04

Under new rules this year, any student can apply for an empowerment scholarship account.

The cap is an $8,000 annual benefit, paid by the state to use towards education expenses, and includes tuition, and private and parochial schools. Recent numbers show its clear participation in the program and its growth.

Prior to universal ESA expansion about 11,000 students, mostly with disabilities, were enrolled in the program.

This past September when the law took effect enrollment began to increase.

As of today, 51,248 students participate in ESA and more than triple the number last August.

Budget analysts for the state forecast by 2026 ESA will grow another 60% to just over 80,000.

Universal ESA has critics, and the criticism mostly boils down to funding and costs.

In the last budget year before the expansion the program cost about $235 million.

Fast forward to an Education Department quarterly report out in late February, and using the department’s averages, ESA annual funding has already potentially reached $450 million. Considering the 51,000 students now enrolled, the annual amount is now very likely over half a billion.

The increases, however, are not unexpected by state analysts. In January, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee recommended appropriations for Universal ESA expansion to account for the over 50,000 new enrollees, bringing the recommended appropriation to about half a billion.

Based on the department’s ESA estimated award amount and how many students are enrolled, it could already be slightly over what the JLBC is recommending.

Beth Lewellan, a consultant that works closely with JLBC data, told ABC15 firmer numbers could be released as early as next week.

Arizona’s Department of Education released a quarterly ESA report that details where students entering the program are coming from.

Topping the list of districts are mostly large suburban unified school districts, Scottsdale Unified leads followed by Tucson Unified.

Dear Valley Unified, Mesa Unified, and Paradise Valley Unified make up the remaining top five. That’s one in four new ESA students from just those districts alone.