PHOENIX — The number of new COVID-19 cases is dropping fast in Arizona: for the first time since November 30, Arizona has reported fewer than 1,000 cases.
For perspective, Arizona's peak collection day in the summer surge was June 29. On that day, we reported more than 5,000 cases.
Our peak day in the latest surge was January 4 -- more than 12,000 samples were reported positive on that day.
Notable: this is the first day of less than 1,000 reported cases since November 30. https://t.co/814pDnSqcj— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) February 25, 2021
The drop, since then, has been nothing short of dramatic.
We have seen almost an 85% drop in week-over-week cases since our peak.
"It's larger than most of the other states off their peaks. It's one of the largest drops," ABC15 data analyst Garrett Archer explained.
So how long can this continue? And, have we hit a floor?
In our summer surge, we hit that point after a 90% drop in cases.
"It looks like we are getting close to the point that we may be hitting a floor with the number of cases and we would start to decline at a much slower pace," says Archer.
"We don't know what's going to happen," Archer admits. "The modeling does not suggest that another surge is on the horizon and because our vaccination rates continue to climb... at some point, the vaccination rates do take over the curve and then we would not be in danger of another surge."