PHOENIX — A heavy snowpack is expected to produce the most water flowing into Lake Powell in more than a decade.
Hydrologists predict the melt will flow into the drought-stricken reservoir at 177% of average, the most since 2011. The bulk of the snow melt is expected to happen in May and June.
The extra water won’t be enough to make up for 23 years of drought.
So how many years would it take to fill up the lake at this rate?
“You could estimate that maybe six or seven consecutive years, this would sort of get our reservoirs back to a healthier level, but that's very unlikely,” said Paul Miller, service coordination hydrologist at the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
It’s unlikely because the amount of rain, snow and winter temperatures in the Colorado River Basin can vary drastically from year to year.
“There's very little that we can take away from this year to help us predict what conditions might be for next year,” Miller said.
Lake Powell, on the Arizona-Utah border, is a key source of Colorado River water for seven western states and 40 million people. But a 23-year drought has caused the lake to drop to historic lows. It’s only 23% full.
Forecasters say the reservoir could rise 54 feet by September, according to the latest projection released by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in March. But that would still be lower than the lake was five years ago as the southwestern states face unprecedented water shortages.
Even with above-average snow, there will still be mandated cuts to Arizona’s Colorado River supply this year.
The Colorado River is in what’s called a Tier 2 shortage, a designation that prompted water cuts.
Arizona got a 592,000-acre foot reduction in its Colorado River supply for this year – which represents about 21% of the state’s Colorado River supply.
The state faces additional cuts.
Earlier this month, Biden Administration released three draft options designed to protect and sustain the Colorado River into the future. The draft analyzed potential shortages and options to protect Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam operations and to ensure water supply and hydropower.
“Right now, the alternatives that are there showed some really deep reductions to the state of Arizona,” said Vineetha Kartha, manager of Colorado River Programs for Central Arizona Project.
The Interior Department is seeking public comment on the draft options and is expected to make a decision in August. That decision will guide river operations in 2024-2026.
Arizona gets about 36% of its water supply from the Colorado River.
River water to central and southern Arizona is transported via the Central Arizona Project, a 336-mile canal system that begins in Lake Havasu and ends south of Tucson.
Email ABC15 Investigator Anne Ryman at anne.ryman@abc15.com, call her at 602-685-6345, or connect on Twitter andFacebook.
