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Economists weigh in on Arizona's groundwater pause

Arizona Drought
Posted at 4:27 PM, Jun 02, 2023
and last updated 2023-06-02 20:09:17-04

BUCKEYE, AZ — "On the single-family homes and multifamily homes, I think it really discourages builders from building in Arizona,” said Andrew Busch.

Busch is an economic futurist and former chief market intelligence officer for the U.S. government.

“It eventually will discourage people from moving to Arizona and that's not good news overall," he added.

Ripple effects will be felt after the newly announced Arizona groundwater pause.

80,000 new homes and industrial projects are set to be built in the Valley soon.

Thursday, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs shared a new study that showed groundwater supporting the Phoenix area can't meet additional development in the next century.

"I think it's going to be very difficult for builders to create that housing that is needed in the region,” Busch said.

Developers wanting to build new developments, need to show they can provide an assured water supply, that's not groundwater, for the next 100 years.

Heath Melton, Phoenix Region President of the Howard Huges Corporation is taking charge of 37,000 acres of a Buckeye development.

The City of Buckeye is more than four million-acre feet short for future developments. Buckeye’s mayor has maintained their water is secure.

Melton tells ABC15, “We remain committed to Teravalis, starting with our development of Floreo, the first phase of Teravalis for which we have already secured 100-year Assured Water Certification from the Arizona Department of Water and which will bring approximately 7,000+ homes to the area. We will continue to explore ways to innovate and implement the most modern measures of conservation and reuse so that when the time comes to expand beyond the development of Floreo, we are ready to do so in a way that ensures the prosperous and sustainable future for the West Valley, remaining, as always, in close collaboration with key stakeholders throughout the region.”

We asked Busch if the groundwater pause will impact Valley home prices.

"You may see a slight dip, but I don't think so,” Busch responded. “There may be some kind of negative connotation to this. But really what it does, is it limits the number of homes that can be built. And so, when you limit the supply, the price goes up."