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Arizona Secretary of State anticipates normal election turnout, even with only two candidates for primary

Super Tuesday's results officially narrowed down Arizona's options to Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump
Posted at 9:40 PM, Mar 06, 2024
and last updated 2024-03-06 23:40:12-05

Then, there were two.

With Super Tuesday, the day when 16 states make their picks for presidential nominees - in the mirror, Arizonans will now have only two options by the time the state's presidential preference election rolls around on March 19.

Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination for president following dismal numbers on Tuesday, while Trump's last-standing opponent Nikki Haley of South Carolina suspended her campaign on Wednesday morning.

With the stage pretty much set between Biden and Trump, Arizona's top election official still hopes for a big turnout for Arizona's presidential preference election.

"It really shows that you care," Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, a Democrat, told ABC15. "And that's an important thing because when you really think about it, a lot of people paid a pretty heavy price for you to be able to vote."

Many voters have also already cast early ballots.

ABC15 Data Analyst Garrett Archer broke down what previous primary elections could tell us about this one.

"Our presidential preference is later on the schedule, so oftentimes the eventual nominee is on the way to obtaining that nomination," Archer said.

Only twice, Archer says, have Arizona voters chosen someone who did not become the eventual nominee. In 2000, Arizona picked its own John McCain over eventual GOP nominee George W. Bush. In 2008, it was for Hillary Clinton when Barack Obama became the Democratic nominee.

"Presidential preference had a turnout of about 30% until 2008 when they popped up to about 50%," Archer said. "We also find that they don't really have a correlation between higher turnout in a presidential election and higher turnout in a general election."

This year's primary is on track to have a lower turnout, according to Fontes.

"I think the ballot by mail numbers are slightly lower than what would've been anticipated," Fontes said, though he noted he didn't have exact numbers. "But now is the time when people really start paying attention and it really starts ticking up."

To the people who say voting is pointless now that there are only two options, Fontes pushes back.

"We have elections because that's what democracy is about," he said. "I mean, some people out there wish we didn't have elections. They don't want democracy to work, they don't want you to have your voice. They don't want you as a voter to have your power."

Fontes said elections are how politicians learn how much power the voter has.

Fontes reminds voters that Arizona's presidential preference is a closed primary, meaning state law prohibits anyone but Republicans and Democrats from voting. Fontes says there has been confusion in the past with Independents showing up on election day.

Voters should expect to still see candidates who have dropped out, like Haley, on their ballots, since in most cases those candidates did not drop out in time to have their name removed. Vote-by-mail ballots have already been sent out in Arizona.

Election Day is March 19. It is too late to register to vote for the presidential preference, but you can learn more about what to expect the day of by clicking here.