PHOENIX — Updated numbers from the S&P Case-Schiller Index show housing prices across the country are up 19.1% year-over-year in October, representing a small drop from the 19.7% increase that was recorded in September. The Phoenix area ranks first among all tracked major metropolitan areas with a year-over-year increase of 32.35%.
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The Case-Schiller index contains data for housing prices going back to 1990. The index was pegged to a baseline of 100 on January 2000. The index rose sharply from March of 2004 to July of 2006 before falling close to the baseline until late in 2011. The index surpassed its 2004 peak in December 2020.
Since then, the index has nearly tripled, hitting 294.88 for October of 2021.
While this is a peak for the Phoenix metro, the data also suggests that the red-hot Phoenix market is starting to cool off.
Year-over-year growth metrics for October are slightly down for the second month in a row, dropping nearly a point from 33.32% to 32.35%. The 0.72% decrease from September’s numbers is the largest pullback since February 2019.
The rise in the index is reflected in the median listing prices for homes in the Valley.
According to data from realtor.com, the median listing price for a home in Phoenix in November 2020 was $417,500; a year later, median listings have risen to just under $485,000.
One of the largest contributing factors in this is housing supply, which has generally been on the decline in Phoenix.
Realtor.com data shows the active number of listings has dropped 15% since November 2020, from 7,186 to 6,129. While still very much a sellers’ market, listings have risen from their reported low of 3,809 in November 2020.
Realtor.com projects that price increases in the Valley will continue into 2022, but at a slower pace. They forecast a 6.8% increase in housing prices by December of 2022.
Other markets with a substantial rise index across the country included Tampa, coming in just behind Phoenix with a 28% year-over-year growth and Miami with a 25% increase.