You've heard of drought — a prolonged period of low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water — and we've been dealing with it locally for decades.
But have you heard of snow drought?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a snow drought is a period of abnormally little snowpack for the time of year. It can be caused by below-normal precipitation or by warm temperatures, which cause more precipitation to fall as rain.
Watch: Scripps News Las Vegas Reporter Geneva Zoltek digs into the latest water supply numbers
Recent research shows the Western U.S. has emerged as a global snow drought "hotspot" where snow droughts are becoming more common — and we could be facing one this winter.
In fact, all major regions in the Western U.S. currently have below-average snowpack levels right now. That includes the Upper Colorado Basin, which feeds the Colorado River.
According to USDA data on Jan. 18, the Upper Colorado Region sits at just 66% of average, while the Lower Basin sits just under 44%.
It's not good news for the reservoirs downstream, which have been facing trouble for some time.
According to Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) data, Lake Mead's elevation is at 33% capacity and Lake Powell's level is at just about 26%. In just one year, Lake Powell has dropped by about 32 feet!
More decline is anticipated. BOR's most recent "Most Probable 24-month Study" projects that Lake Mead could reach an elevation of 1,036.50 ft. in November of 2027 — that would be another 30 feet of decline in less than two years!
Growing Concern Over Water Policy Fights
As I've reported, water sharing agreements for the Colorado River expire later this year — but the states that utilize the water have not yet come up with a plan moving forward. The final deadline for a deal is February 14, now less than one month away.
But there has been some progress federally.
Earlier this month, BOR's draft proposal for "Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead" was released. You can check it out here. Public comment remains open through March 2.
To learn more about how the plan is being received, Scripps News Las Vegas reached back out to Western Resource Alliance's water policy expert John Berggren, who spoke to us last year when the Colorado River deadline was still a few months out.
He said, while there are some robust choices within the federal plan, state agreement remains paramount to the security of the water resource.
"My initial response is there's a lot of good stuff in those alternatives," Berggren said, " But it does highlight, though, without a seven-state agreement, they only have the authority to do one of those."
Berggren explained that one option is the Basic Coordination Alternative.
"It basically normalizes 1.5 million acre-feet of shortages in the Lower Basin in most years," he explained.
"If you look at some of the analysis and the results in the draft EIS [Environmental Impact Statement], it's pretty clear that the Basic Coordination Alternative does not do enough. It does not protect the system, and there are many scenarios where the Colorado River Basin system will crash if that's all they have the ability to do."
As we've reported, decision-makers and policy watchdogs remained concerned that a lack of seven-state cohesion could lead to lawsuits. Expensive and time-consuming, while the Colorado River would continue to suffer in the meantime.
"Those fundamental disagreements have to do with who's gonna cut their water use, when, and whether that's gonna be mandatory or voluntary," Berggren said.
