MOST ACCURATE FORECAST: Rain and snow for Christmas Eve

Posted at 5:02 AM, Dec 23, 2021
and last updated 2021-12-24 00:23:17-05

PHOENIX — Our next storm system will move through the state starting tonight through Christmas Day. Travel may become hazardous across our state, especially on Christmas Eve.

The best chance for rain and snowfall will start before sunrise Christmas Eve and wind down Christmas morning. Lingering showers are possible through the weekend, too.

Valley rainfall totals are likely to be impressive, ranging anywhere from half an inch to one inch through Christmas Day.
The record for the wettest Christmas Eve is 0.93" set in 1944.

A Flash Flood Watch is in place for Mohave County, particularly for the Flag Burn Scar area from now through 8 pm Friday.

With significant rainfall impacting the state tomorrow, an ABC15 Weather Action Day will take effect on Christmas Eve.

The same storm will also bring a chance for snow to the high country through the weekend, as snow levels start at 8-9,000 feet and drop to around 7,000 feet Friday. and then drop to around 5,500 feet by Saturday morning.

Areas above 7,000 feet could pick up three to eight inches of snow, including the San Francisco Peaks, Kaibab Plateau, and White Mountains, so there is a decent chance for a "White Christmas" for parts of Arizona this year, which is defined as having one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day!

A Winter Storm Warning for the Kaibab Plateau above 7500 feet is in effect now through 11 am Saturday as this area could get up to 1-2 feet of snow.

A Winter Weather Advisory for the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau is in effect tonight at 11 pm until Saturday at 11 pm as this area could get 4-6 inches of snow.

A Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim, including the cities of Flagstaff and Happy Jack from midnight tonight until 5 pm Friday. Snowfall in this area is expected to be between 4-8 inches.

Winds will be breezy to gusty across Arizona as these storms move through.
A Wind Advisory has been issued for Apache county and the White Mountains from Midnight to 8 pm Friday. Southwest winds 25-35 mph with gusts as strong as 50 mph.

Once the storm passes, cooler temperatures will stick around for awhile! Highs in the Valley will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend and next week.

More storms are in the forecast next week, too. Stay tuned for updates as we get closer.


2021 Rainfall totals:

Sky Harbor Official Rainfall: 5.93" (-1.05" from average)

Valley Average (Phoenix Rainfall Index): 7.49"

Daily rainfall reports from all across the Valley can be found here.


Average Monsoon Rainfall in Phoenix (1981-2010): 2.71" of rain

NEW Average Monsoon Rainfall in Phoenix (1991-2020): 2.43" of rain

Average Yearly Rainfall in Phoenix (1981-2010): 8:03" of rain

NEW Average Yearly Rainfall in Phoenix (1991-2020): 7.22" of rain

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