Inside Arizona Politics: Democrat shakes up race for Shadegg's congressional seat

PHOENIX - The 10-way Republican race for Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District is the most crowded primary contest in the state going back at least 20 years. It's drawn in three former lawmakers, two former mayors, a prominent business owner and the son of a former vice president.

But the congressional race got even more exciting on July 9, and it had nothing to do with any of the Republicans.

Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd shocked everyone when his campaign said it had raised a whopping $750,000 - more than any other candidate in the race has reported so far. More than $250,000 was donated during the second quarter, a very healthy fundraising figure that could pose some problems this fall for whoever emerges from the Republican primary on Aug. 24. 

Ruben Alonzo, Hulbard’s campaign manager, told the Arizona Capitol Times that he is very happy with the position they’re in. And for good reason.

Since Hulburd doesn’t have a primary challenge, he has a luxury none of the Republicans can afford — the opportunity to hold off on his spending until the general election season.

In the meantime, Hulburd is reaching out to independents, who make up nearly 30 percent of the 376,000 voters in the congressional district.

“We know that those 10 Republicans are all talking to Republicans,” Alonzo said. “So we’re taking advantage and talking to independent voters.”

Hulburd, in fact, has an uphill climb. Whoever emerges from the Republican contest will be a formidable foe in familiar and friendly GOP territory. There are about 47,000 more Republican voters in the district than Democrats.

But there’s a major difference between 2008 and 2010. U.S. Rep. John Shadegg won’t be on the ballot in November. He is retiring after his term ends, which means his seat will be vacant.

Meanwhile, the Republican contest is shaping up as a true scramble - campaign managers are trying to determine which candidate they need to target, and many candidates are trying to appeal to the same voting bloc, whether defined by geography or ideology.

Political observers have categorized GOP candidates into two tiers, but none of the candidates can be counted out. Anyone could break out from the pack, and it could take as little as 20 percent of the vote to win.

Political consultant Constantin Querard said because the race is so crowded, a candidate’s “negative” could turn out to be a good thing.

“In a race like this, everybody’s liability is also their positive because you need so few votes to win,” Querard said. “Everybody’s negative is what makes them unique, and being unique is worth 20 points.”

Prof. Zachary Smith of Northern Arizona University’s department of politics and international affairs, said what he finds most interesting is the possibility that an “outlier” candidate could triumph.

“If you could identify yourself as the animal-rights candidate — just to pick something out of the air — in a race like this, and you could just work hard for all the Republicans that are strongly in favor of animal rights, I bet you could pull it off," he said. “Basically, anything could happen."

List of Candidates in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District

Republicans: Ben Quayle, Jim Waring, Pamela Gorman, Sam Crump, Vernon Parker, Ed Winkler, Bob Branch, LeAnn Hull, Steve Moak, Paulina Morris.

Democrat: Jon Hulburd

Green Party: Leonard Clark

Libertarian: Michael Shoen