Expert: Home prices to drop in 2011

PHOENIX - What goes up, must come down.

That's what's expected to happen to our housing market.

The chief economist for Fiserv , a national financial services technology company, says in the first three months of 2011 get ready for a 16 percent drop in Phoenix home prices.

“Yeah I would say that is accurate. There are not enough buyers to buy all these homes that are on the market.”

Dean Wegner is a Valley real estate and mortgage expert who explains why the double-digit drop is expected.

“Homes prices did go up five and a half percent from June 2009 to June 2010 but that's because the first-time home buyer tax credit created a demand for first-time homebuyers and as a result you are seeing the buyers that should have bought next year bought this year, and so we have a lack going forward is really what it is,” Wegner said.

That means if you're looking to buy you can still find a great deal.

As for homeowners Wegner said, “You just got to hang in there. We all know it is a bad housing crisis. We all know its going to last for a decade so yes, this is a some bad news, but really with home prices on average being upside down by almost 50 percent. That's a 10-year to get back to normal. So what if the next 12 months are really bad, you are really talking about the next 10 years.”

He added that one thing that could help clear some of the inventory is if more people in Canada or other states look to Arizona as a place to buy a second home.

He also said there needs to be more programs to “expand” the buyer pool not just “motivate” it.

Hear more from Wegner in the attached Web-exclusive interview.