PHOENIX -- A new report on El Nino and has just been released from
NOAA, which has weather implications for Arizona.
The strength of El Nino has not changed since November and is still considered to be a borderline moderate to strong event.
Last month the long range forecast (January - March) was calling for a 30 percent chance of seeing above normal rain and snow across the entire state.
Now the long range precipitation outlook for January through March has changed in a big way.
NOAA is forecasting a greater than 50 percent of seeing above normal rainfall for all desert locations in south central Arizona, including the Valley, for the three month time frame of January through March.
The high country has a 40 percent of seeing above normal rain and snow through the same time period.
With the exception of an early December winter storm, most of the state has seen limited rain and snow.
The Valley is on pace to end up almost 5" of rain below normal for 2009 with most of the state well below normal for the year.
Below is a list of cities and their precipitation deficits for 2009. This shows how much we are below average for 2009:
Greer - 12.43"
Flagstaff - 11.35"
Payson - 11.01"
Show Low- 9.24"
Prescott - 7.23"
Sedona - 7.01"
Winslow - 6.35"
Even with the big storm almost two weeks ago, most of the state is still in a severe drought with parts of northeast Arizona experiencing an extreme drought.
The good news is that ALL of Arizona is forecasted to see an improvement in the current drought situation through March due to an active El Nino pattern.
Based on observational and model data, El Niño is expected to remain moderate/strong through Winter 2009-2010 and continue into Spring 2010. There will be an increased chance for above normal rainfall and snowfall this winter across southeast California and southwest/south-central Arizona.
Keep in mind that El Niño usually does not impact Arizona until late December through March.
Why El Niño could mean cooler, wetter winter in Arizona
