PHOENIX -- It's been no secret that this was an extremely dry summer, not only for the Valley, but for the entire state of Arizona.
The summer of 2009 went down as the 3rd driest and the 93rd warmest on record for the state.
Even though our monsoon season technically ends September 30th, there is no rain in sight which means this monsoon season will go down as the tenth driest ever.
Sky Harbor Airport received only 0.87" while the Phoenix Rainfall Index (Valley average) measured a dismal 0.62".
This coming off last year's monsoon totals of 5.70" at Sky harbor and 3.01" for the Valley average.
Even Tucson is on pace for their tenth driest monsoon on record and 4th warmest summer on record.
Flagstaff has received only 2.84" of rain for the summer which is still more than 3" below the seasonal average.
SEE PHOTOS OF THE SUMMER STORMS IN THE ATTACHED SLIDESHOWThere is some good news for the upcoming winter season. El Nino is still strengthening which usually means above normal rainfall for the Valley and above normal snowfall for the high country for the months of December through February.
Two of the last three El Nino events provided above normal rainfall for the Valley during the winter months.
The most recent El Nino was the winter of 2006-2007 where only 1.23" of rain fell across the Valley which was 1.22" below normal for that time period.
However, the El Nino events of 2002-2003 and 1997-1998 were very wet with above average rainfall for the Valley.
Rainfall for the winter of 2002-2003 ended up at 3.88" which was almost 1.5" above normal. And rainfall for the winter of 1997-1998 ended up a wet 4.11" which was 1.66" above normal.
When looking at snowfall for the high country during El Nino, we find out that there is a significant difference in the amount of snowfall for the area when the El Nino is considered strong compared to moderate or weak.
Lets focus on the Flagstaff area. The last three strong El Nino events occurred in 1997-1998, 1991-1992, and 1982-1983.
The El Nino of 1997-98 produced 136.7" of snow which is more than 27" above normal.
The El Nino of 1991-92 produced 158.9" of snow which is more than 49" above normal.
And the El Nino of 1982-83 produced 142.6" of snow which is more than 33" above normal.
The El Nino events of 2006-07 and 2002-03 were considered weak to moderate and only produced 50 percent of the normal amount of snow for the winter months.
The good news is that this current El Nino is considered moderate and gaining more strength. If this strengthening keeps up, it could mean a lot of snow for the high country which is essential when it comes to snow pack and run off for our reservoirs.
